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17 Ιαν 2015

Μοody's : Η έξοδος της Ελλάδας απο το ευρώ δεν αποτελεί κίνδυνο αλλά ευκαιρία ανάκαμψης της οικονομίας της

Από το γραφείο του Μπέμπε Γκρίλο που συχνά μας τροφοδοτεί με ενδιαφέροντα κείμενα και ειδήσεις για τις εξελίξεις γύρω από την ευρωζώνη που δεν αναπαράγονται όπως είναι εύλογο από τα καθεστωτικά ελληνικά ΜΜΕ, παραθέτουμε στην αγγλική ένα πρόσφατο σχετικό  κείμενο με τον περιπεκτικό τίτλο που δανεισμένο και από την ομότιτλη πασίγνωστη ταινεία από τη δική μας Nia Vardalos,"This big Greek fat wedding". Σύμφωνα με ξεκάθαρη θέση και ανάλυση του επενδυτικού οίκου Moody's, η έξοδος της Ελλάδας απο το ευρώ θα αποτελούσε ένα θετικό βήμα που θα οφελήσει  τον ελληνικό λαό και μεσοπρόθεσμα θα οδηγήσει στην ανάκαμψη της οικονομίας. Το σχετικό κείμενο έχει ως εξής :

"The credit-rating agency Moody's believes that it would be a positive step for Greece to leave the Euro. It would benefit the Greek people and in the medium term it would see the recovery of the economy. Τhe reasoning of the financial analysts is right for three reasons:
1) Greece would return to a situation in which its currency is compatible with its economy, and it would devalue in relation to the Euro and other currencies. This would make Greek goods more competitive in foreign markets and thus there would be an increase in exports and therefore in domestic employment.
2) Having monetary sovereignty would allow the Greek Government to work with the national bank, to create positive deficits, to invest, to improve the infrastructure, and to see the recovery of employment and of incomes, instead of just shelling out for massive interest payments on the public debt.
3) That very same public debt would be a lot less costly, because Greece’s central bank would be able to buy the part that has not been sold on the market and thus reduce the interest rate.
This measure would bring about an increase in consumption together with more jobs and higher incomes. At the same time as the increase in foreign demand (meaning an increase in exports), there’d be an increase in domestic demand and that would provide Greek companies with more stable profits.
For Greece, the danger would be seen just in the short term. A Euro-exit is difficult to manage because most of the Greek public debt has been contracted with supranational institutions in Euros and it cannot be converted into the new drachma. Unlike Italy, Greece would have to rely on the good will of its foreign creditors to spread out the paying back of its debts over the years to come. Furthermore, devaluation would make the Euro-debt even more difficult to pay back and it would increase the cost of imports needed for a Greek recovery because its industrial infrastructure has been sorely weakened by the Euro and by austerity.
However the conclusion reached by Moody’ is still valid: a country with its own currency can transform debt into wealth for its citizens, it can invest in research, in education, in innovation and infrastructure, and it can make things better for the private sector and for society as a whole. By giving a boost to GDP, the debt can pay for itself. 
In spite of the prolonged crisis, Italy has an economy that is much more advanced and more solid than Greece’s economy. Our difficulties with the public debt, with the increasing poverty among families, and with unemployment, are closely connected to the absence of monetary sovereignty. Although a Euro-exit would have to be managed competently and carefully, the short-term difficulties would be trivial compared to what Greece might have to endure. 94% of our public debt could, in fact, be converted into Llire, because it was contracted under Italian law. If we impose controls over the movement of capital, and oblige the commercial banks to buy part of our debt, the new Lira would very quickly gain stability on currency markets and the Government could orientate the economy towards the recovery of domestic demand and the increase of earned income and of profits. It could make the economy independent of foreign markets and speculation. Very careful preparation would be needed for a Euro-exit - and there’d be need for a plan for industrial recovery and for financial management of the exit, but not even Moody’s can deny that if we stay inside the Euro we can expect a slow, suffocating decline, whereas outside it, we’ll have sovereignty, development and democracy. After a big fat Greek wedding, there’ll be a big fat Italian wedding. It’s just a matter of time. Let’s get out of the Euro." M5S in the Senate
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