Google+ Followers

4 Φεβ 2015

Bebe Grillo ; Αν ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας καταργήσει το μνημόνιο, πρέπει να φύγει η Ελλάδα απο το ευρώ

Από το γραφείο του Bebe Grillo μας έστειλειλαν την ανάλυση που παραθέτουμς στην αγγλική που επισημάινει ότι, οι Ευρωπαίοι έχουνξεκαθαρίσει ότι, αν η κυβέρνηση του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ και των ΑΝΕΛ καταργήσουν το μνημόνιο, τότε θα υπάρξει παύση όλης της οικονομικής βοήθεια προς την Ελλάδα. Αν ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας επιμείνει στις προεκλογικές του δεσμεύσεις πρέπει να φύγει η ελλάδα απο το ευρώ. Και αυτά τα επιβαιβεαιώνει με ιταμό τρόπο η μόλις πρόσφατα διαροή για τη στάση της Γερμανίας που στην ουσία λέει όχι στις προτάσεις και πρωτοβουλίες της ελληνικής κυβέρνησης. από τη φική μας την πλευρά ευχόμαστε να μη φτάσουν τα πράγματα στα άκρα. αλλά καλό είναι να έχουμε ετοιμάσει εναλλακτικά χσέδια για όλες τις πιθανές εξελίξεις. Το πλήρες κείμενο από το γραφείο του Bebe Grillo, τον οποίο δε συνάντησαν εκπρόσωποι της ελληνικής κυβέρνησης, έχει ως εξής : 
“What will Tsipras do now? If it’s to stick to its election promises, it has to exit the Euro. In fact, unlike a year ago, Greece is no longer the deciding factor that may or may not cause the collapse of the system. This is why the ECB and the Troika, in spite of the slap in the face that they have suffered, can still throw their weight around when dealing with the Greek citizens. They have already stated that if the Syriza coalition stays in the Euro and tears up the Memorandum, they would put a stop to all the help that Greece would need to fulfill its financial commitments. In other words, it would fall into default.

THE RISE OF THE EUROSCEPTICS
It cannot be denied that whatever happens, the recent Greek elections have clearly shown the will of the people. We could summarise that as 36.34% for Tsipras with the urgent cry of: "The Troika must get out of our country". And they are certainly not the only ones to think this way in Europe. Just look at the info-graphic given at the bottom of this post and you can see that the rise of the Euro-sceptic parties is unstoppable, in spite of things that the ECB reckons are going to solve the situation (like QE), that in fact are nothing other than an attempt to cover up the umpteenth failure of wicked economic, monetary and social policies.
EXPOSURE OF GERMAN BANKS
Tsipras has to keep in mind that the European banks have drastically reduced their Greek exposure from 250 billion at the end of 2009 to 50 billion in 2014. This reduction comes from the use of the aid that the Troika has given to Greece: about 240 billion since 2010. How has this money been used? Most of these funds, have been used for the recapitalization of Greek banks (48 billion), and they’ve been used to reduce the exposure of the big European banks. The main beneficiaries? German institutions that have reduced their exposure by 80%.
YIELDS
The second factor is the connection between yields in Greece and yields in the Eurozone. Ever since 2010, the growth in the yields on Greek government bonds (that is thus an indicator of an increase in risk ) caused a chain reaction and brought about growth in the yields in Italy, Spain, Ireland and Portugal. Basically, Greece was the most likely breaking point of the euro zone. At the end of 2014, partly due to the unstable political situation, Greek yields started to rise, but unlike in previous years, this has not produced an increase in the yields in the above-mentioned countries.
EXPORTS
The third and final factor is a consideration of exports from the Euro-zone into Greece, - these have had a definite drop and now amount to less than 1.5 billion. If there is a Greek exit, then the drop in Euro-zone revenues will be less severe than the value predicted in 2012. Furthermore, the countries at risk of contagion, have now re-established primary surpluses following on from the big cuts in public spending that were brought in with the austerity measures and thus they have a greater capacity to limit any negative confidence that might result from a Greek exit.
FORECAST
Moody’s, the credit rating agency, believes that a Greek exit (Grexit) from the Euro would cause short-term damage to the Greek economy (principally because of the financial institutions being too closely connected to the ECB and because a lot of public debt has been issued under foreign legislation since the restructuring) but, apart from the factors mentioned above, this shouldn’t bring in problems of contagion. However, according to Moody’s line of thinking, in the medium to long term, if Greece were out of the Euro, it would grow more than the countries staying in the single currency. They too, will probably start to wonder whether it’s worthwhile staying in the Euro and putting up with the restrictions, the internal devaluation and the consequences for social welfare. That’ll be the biggest systemic risk." M5S Europe
INFOGRAPHIC: Euro-sceptic parties in Europe